Gabe Vasquez · HOUSENM2-26
Gabe Vasquez is priced at 91¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 89¢ bid, 91¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside HOUSENM2-26.
Price history
91¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If the House member sworn in for NM-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Gabe Vasquez
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Gabe Vasquez 89¢
Range
9¢-89¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
HOUSENM2-26-D
Sep 17, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
89¢
Ask
91¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$2
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · HOUSENM2-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
89 / 91¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the House member sworn in for NM-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
HOUSENM2-26-D
Event family
HOUSENM2-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Gabe Vasquez 89¢
Current share
—
Gabe Vasquez
kalshi · HOUSENM2-26-D
Greg Cunningham
kalshi · HOUSENM2-26-R
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.585
Observability
direct
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.