Jon Ossoff · SENATEGA-26
Jon Ossoff is priced at 81¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 81¢ bid, 82¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside SENATEGA-26.
Price history
81¢ current
Contract brief
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Georgia for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Jon Ossoff
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Jon Ossoff 81¢
Range
17¢-81¢
Family volume
$393
Identifier
SENATEGA-26-D
Jun 12, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
81¢
Ask
82¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$391
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · SENATEGA-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$393
Orderbook snapshot
81 / 82¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Georgia for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
SENATEGA-26-D
Event family
SENATEGA-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$393
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Jon Ossoff 81¢
Current share
99%
Jon Ossoff
kalshi · SENATEGA-26-D
Republican party
kalshi · SENATEGA-26-R
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
Read 81% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.