Alaska, Iowa · Will Democrats win
Alaska, Iowa is priced at 1¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 16 inside Will Democrats win.
Price history
1¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If the winning party for the Class II Senate seat of Texas is NOT the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Alaska is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Iowa is the Democratic Party, AND the Class III Senate seat of Ohio is NOT the Democratic Party for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Alaska, Iowa
Rank
#10 of 16
Leader
Democratic sweep 34¢
Range
1¢-34¢
Family volume
$805
Identifier
KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FTTF
Aug 10, 2026, 12:58 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$166
Family rank
#10 of 16
16 outcomes · Will Democrats win
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$805
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the winning party for the Class II Senate seat of Texas is NOT the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Alaska is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Iowa is the Democratic Party, AND the Class III Senate seat of Ohio is NOT the Democratic Party for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FTTF
Event family
Will Democrats win.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$805
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Democratic sweep 34¢
Current share
0%
Democratic sweep
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TTTT
Republican sweep
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FFFF
Texas, Alaska, Ohio
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TTFT
Iowa, Ohio
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FFTT
Texas, Iowa, Ohio
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TFTT
Alaska, Iowa, Ohio
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FTTT
Ohio
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FFFT
Alaska, Ohio
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FTFT
Texas, Ohio
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TFFT
Alaska, Iowa
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FTTF
Iowa
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FFTF
Alaska
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FTFF
Texas
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TFFF
Texas, Iowa
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TFTF
Texas, Alaska
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TTFF
Texas, Alaska, Iowa
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TTTF
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.