Democratic sweep · Will Democrats win
Democratic sweep is priced at 34¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 34¢ bid, 35¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Will Democrats win.
Price history
34¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
If the winning party for the Class II Senate seat of Texas is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Alaska is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Iowa is the Democratic Party, AND the Class III Senate seat of Ohio is the Democratic Party for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Democratic sweep
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
Democratic sweep 34¢
Range
1¢-34¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TTTT
Aug 9, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
34¢
Ask
35¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$266
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · Will Democrats win
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
34 / 35¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the winning party for the Class II Senate seat of Texas is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Alaska is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Iowa is the Democratic Party, AND the Class III Senate seat of Ohio is the Democratic Party for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TTTT
Event family
Will Democrats win.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Democratic sweep 34¢
Current share
0%
Democratic sweep
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TTTT
Republican sweep
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FFFF
Texas, Alaska, Ohio
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TTFT
Iowa, Ohio
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FFTT
Texas, Iowa, Ohio
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TFTT
Alaska, Iowa, Ohio
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FTTT
Texas, Ohio
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TFFT
Ohio
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FFFT
Alaska, Ohio
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FTFT
Iowa
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FFTF
Alaska
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FTFF
Alaska, Iowa
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-FTTF
Texas
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TFFF
Texas, Iowa
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TFTF
Texas, Alaska
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TTFF
Texas, Alaska, Iowa
kalshi · KXFOURSTATESEN-26NOV03-TTTF
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Reading Prediction Market Orderbooks: Liquidity, Spread, and When to Enter
How to read prediction market orderbooks on Kalshi. Covers bid-ask spread analysis, liquidity scoring, executable edge calculation, and when thin markets are opportunities vs traps.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 34% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.