SimpleFunctions

Above 875M · Will Diplo have

Above 875M is priced at 98¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 94¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 16 inside Will Diplo have.

Price history

98¢ current

+5¢
90¢95¢100¢
May 29, 2026Jun 25, 2026

Contract brief

If Diplo has Above 875M Worldwide Streams during the January 01 - December 31, 2026 period, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 875M

Rank

#9 of 16

Leader

Above 700M 99¢

Range

87¢-99¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXARTISTSTREAMSY-DIPLO26DEC31-875.0M

Jun 25, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 10m ago

Implied probability

98¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 25, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 10m ago

Bid

94¢

Ask

99¢

Spread

Reported volume

$76

Family rank

#9 of 16

16 outcomes · Will Diplo have

Closes

Jan 2, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

94 / 99¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
94¢5
93¢500
AskSize
99¢601

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Diplo has Above 875M Worldwide Streams during the January 01 - December 31, 2026 period, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 2, 2027

Identifier

KXARTISTSTREAMSY-DIPLO26DEC31-875.0M

SF Signal
SF Index
1495.20
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

12.2%

IY (No)

2990.4%

Adj IY

1495%

CRI

16

Overround

17.0%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

12.2%
2990.4%
Adj IY
1495%
16
Overround
17.0%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.