Don Bacon · KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN
Don Bacon is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 6 inside KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN.
Price history
13¢ current
Contract brief
If Don Bacon leaves or announces that they are leaving the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Don Bacon
Rank
#6 of 6
Leader
Marjorie Taylor Greene 45¢
Range
6¢-45¢
Family volume
$201
Identifier
KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-DBAC
Jun 26, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$10K
Family rank
#6 of 6
6 outcomes · KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$201
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Don Bacon leaves or announces that they are leaving the Republican party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-DBAC
Event family
KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$201
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Marjorie Taylor Greene 45¢
Current share
0%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
kalshi · KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN
Lisa Murkowski
kalshi · KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-LMURK
Thomas Massie
kalshi · KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-TMAS
Henry Cuellar
kalshi · KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-CUEL
John Fetterman
kalshi · KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-JFET
Don Bacon
kalshi · KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-DBAC
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 13% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.