Will JFET leave the John Fetterman
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 27% of their title tokens — “Will JFET leave the John Fetterman” vs “Will Marjorie Taylor Greene leave the Republican party”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will JFET leave the John Fetterman
Will JFET leave the John Fetterman?: John Fetterman
KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-JFET
Cluster 2
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene leave the Republican party
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene leave the Republican party?: Marjorie Taylor Greene
KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN
Cluster 3
Will Henry Cuellar leave the Democratic
Will Henry Cuellar leave the Democratic?: Henry Cuellar
KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-CUEL
Cluster 4
Will Thomas Massie leave the Republican
Will Thomas Massie leave the Republican?: Thomas Massie
KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-TMAS
Cluster 5
Will Lisa Murkowski leave the Republican
Will Lisa Murkowski leave the Republican?: Lisa Murkowski
KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-LMURK
Cluster 6
Will Don Bacon leave the Republican
Will Don Bacon leave the Republican?: Don Bacon
KXMTGSWITCH-27JAN-DBAC
Analysis
This market estimates a 13% probability that Senator John Fetterman will leave office before a specified date. The relatively low probability reflects that Fetterman currently holds his Senate seat with no announced resignation plans, and senators typically complete their terms absent serious health crises or unexpected circumstances. The probability would rise if credible reporting emerged about his health status, personal circumstances, or stated intentions to resign. The primary uncertainty driver is Fetterman's long-standing health challenges, which have been publicly documented but appear stable under current management. Any significant health event or formal announcement regarding his legislative future would substantially alter this probability. The contract structure suggests the market is pricing in a low but non-negligible risk of departure within the specified timeframe.
- ›Fetterman's documented history of depression and stroke recovery, which remain potential variables in his continued Senate service
- ›Absence of current public reporting or statements indicating intention to resign from his Senate position
- ›Historical precedent showing Senate resignations are uncommon except in cases of health emergencies, legal troubles, or explicit career transitions
- ›The specific resolution date or condition embedded in the contract, which determines whether early departure scenarios count toward settlement
- ›Market volume and pricing across related political resignation contracts, which contextualizes confidence levels across comparable outcomes
What moved the line
- May 7John Fetterman↑3pp17→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.