Before Jan 1, 2027 · KXTRUMPAPOLOGY-26
Before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
4¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
If Donald Trump issues a public apology for any of his own statements, actions, or conduct before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$347
Identifier
KXTRUMPAPOLOGY-26-27JAN01
Aug 26, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$347
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$347
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump issues a public apology for any of his own statements, actions, or conduct before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTRUMPAPOLOGY-26-27JAN01
Event family
KXTRUMPAPOLOGY-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$347
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 5¢
Current share
100%
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXTRUMPAPOLOGY-26-27JAN01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 4% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.