Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in Jul 2026
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in Jul 2026 is priced at 88¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 100¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
88¢ current
+25¢Contract brief
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in Jul 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$71K
Identifier
KXNEWTARIFFS-26JUL-AUG01
Jul 28, 2026, 8:59 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
100¢
Reported volume
$71K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jul 20, 2026
Family volume
$71K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 20, 2026
Identifier
KXNEWTARIFFS-26JUL-AUG01
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$71K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in Jul 2026 88¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
The 1992 Pound Trade Has a $82M Polymarket Twin: Conviction Macro Bets in the Age of On-Chain Liquidity
Soros and Druckenmiller scaled their pound short to $10B in a single September 1992 day. Théo deployed $80M across 11 Polymarket accounts on Trump 2024 and netted ~$82.3M. The mechanic — proprietary signal, conviction sizing, asymmetric payoff — is identical. The instrument is new.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 88% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.