Before Jul 10, 2026 · KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26
Before Jul 10, 2026 is priced at 64¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 65¢ bid, 66¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 7 inside KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26.
Price history
64¢ current
+16¢Contract brief
If Graham Platner drops out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jul 10, 2026
Rank
#5 of 7
Leader
Before Jul 14, 2026 92¢
Range
1¢-92¢
Family volume
$2.1M
Identifier
KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26-JUL10
Jul 8, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
65¢
Ask
66¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$134K
Family rank
#5 of 7
7 outcomes · KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
Family volume
$2.1M
Orderbook snapshot
65 / 66¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Graham Platner drops out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
Identifier
KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26-JUL10
Event family
KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2.1M
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Before Jul 14, 2026 92¢
Current share
6%
Before Jul 14, 2026
kalshi · KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26
Before Jul 13, 2026
kalshi · KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26-JUL13
Before Jul 12, 2026
kalshi · KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26-JUL12
Before Jul 11, 2026
kalshi · KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26-JUL11
Before Jul 10, 2026
kalshi · KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26-JUL10
Before Jul 9, 2026
kalshi · KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26-JUL9
Before Jul 8, 2026
kalshi · KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26-JUL8
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.