SimpleFunctions

Either team to advance in Regulation Time · Will either team advance

Either team to advance in Regulation Time is priced at 67¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 66¢ bid, 67¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Will either team advance.

Price history

67¢ current

65¢70¢
Jul 13, 2026Jul 13, 2026

Contract brief

If either team advances in the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Semifinal soccer tie originally scheduled for Jul 15, 2026 via victory in Regulation Time, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Either team to advance in Regulation Time

Rank

#1 of 3

Leader

Either team to advance in Regulation Time 66¢

Range

16¢-66¢

Family volume

$6K

Identifier

KXWCMOF-26JUL15ENGARG-REG

Jul 13, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 18m ago

Implied probability

67¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 13, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 18m ago

Bid

66¢

Ask

67¢

Spread

24h volume

$1K

Family rank

#1 of 3

3 outcomes · Will either team advance

Closes

Jul 29, 2026

Family volume

$6K

Orderbook snapshot

66 / 67¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
66¢6.7K
65¢10K
64¢11K
63¢11K
62¢10K
AskSize
67¢18K
68¢400
69¢5.3K
71¢50K
72¢14K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If either team advances in the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Semifinal soccer tie originally scheduled for Jul 15, 2026 via victory in Regulation Time, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 29, 2026

Identifier

KXWCMOF-26JUL15ENGARG-REG

SF Signal
SF Index
2099.28
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will either team advance.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$6K

Outcomes

3

Highest price

Either team to advance in Regulation Time 66¢

Current share

17%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1131.4%

IY (No)

4263.4%

Adj IY

2099%

CRI

2

Overround

-0.0%

LAS

0.02

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1131.4%
4263.4%
Adj IY
2099%
2
Overround
-0.0%
LAS
0.02

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.