Before 2028 · Will Elder Scrolls VI be released before 202
Before 2028 is priced at 27¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 27¢ ask, 12¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will Elder Scrolls VI be released before 202.
Price history
27¢ current
Contract brief
If Elder Scrolls VI is released on any console before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before 2028
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Before 2028 15¢
Range
4¢-15¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXESVI-28
Jun 21, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 12m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
27¢
Spread
12¢
Reported volume
$6K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will Elder Scrolls VI be released before 202
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 27¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Elder Scrolls VI is released on any console before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KXESVI-28
Event family
Will Elder Scrolls VI be released before 202.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before 2028 15¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 27% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.