Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?
This contract is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 2¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
1
Family volume
$2
Best sibling
—
Ticker
KXELONMARS-99
Market snapshot
Mars in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?. The displayed quote is 7¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $2. It is currently represented as a standalone prediction-market contract. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.
Outcome
Mars
Family rank
—
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
7¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Aug 1, 2099
24h volume
$2
Family context
Standalone contract
Quote range
—
Family leader
—
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 12m ago
Venue identifier: KXELONMARS-99. Family volume: $2.
Price history
7¢ current
−2¢Orderbook snapshot
7 / 9¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If Elon Musk visits Mars before the earlier of his death or Aug 1, 2099, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2099
Identifier
KXELONMARS-99
Event family
KXELONMARS-99.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$2
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Mars 7¢
Current share
100%
Mars
kalshi · KXELONMARS-99
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
scientific
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 7% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.