Mars · KXELONMARS-99
Mars is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
13¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
If Elon Musk visits Mars before the earlier of his death or Aug 1, 2099, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Mars
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$6
Identifier
KXELONMARS-99
Jun 27, 2026, 2:38 PM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$6
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Aug 1, 2099
Family volume
$6
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Elon Musk visits Mars before the earlier of his death or Aug 1, 2099, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2099
Identifier
KXELONMARS-99
Event family
KXELONMARS-99.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Mars 12¢
Current share
100%
Mars
kalshi · KXELONMARS-99
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
scientific
Related readings
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 13% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.