SimpleFunctions

England score over 4.5 goals

England over 4.5 goals is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 8 inside KXWCTEAMTOTAL-26JUN27PANENG.

Price history

10¢ current

+8¢
0¢10¢
Jun 10, 2026Jun 23, 2026

Contract brief

If England records above 4.5 goals in the Panama vs England professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 27, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

England over 4.5 goals

Rank

#7 of 8

Leader

England over 0.5 goals 93¢

Range

5¢-93¢

Family volume

$363

Identifier

KXWCTEAMTOTAL-26JUN27PANENG-ENG5

Jun 23, 2026, 2:38 PM UTC · 29m ago

Implied probability

10¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 23, 2026, 2:38 PM UTC · 29m ago

Bid

10¢

Ask

12¢

Spread

24h volume

$10

Family rank

#7 of 8

8 outcomes · KXWCTEAMTOTAL-26JUN27PANENG

Closes

Jul 11, 2026

Family volume

$363

Orderbook snapshot

10 / 12¢

Kalshi
2¢ spread
BidSize
10¢500
9¢750
7¢130
6¢253
5¢731
AskSize
12¢722
13¢287
14¢500
15¢500
16¢614

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If England records above 4.5 goals in the Panama vs England professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 27, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 11, 2026

Identifier

KXWCTEAMTOTAL-26JUN27PANENG-ENG5

SF Signal
SF Index
17985.22
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

17985.2%

IY (No)

222.0%

Adj IY

17985%

CRI

9

RV

1599%

VR

0.94

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

17985.2%
222.0%
Adj IY
17985%
9
RV
1599%
VR
0.94
IAR
0.7/h
Overround
2.1%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.