3 · Will exactly
3 is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 7 inside Will exactly.
Price history
4¢ current
Contract brief
If exactly 3 justices vote in favor of the petitioner in Trump v. Slaughter, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
3
Rank
#3 of 7
Leader
6 87¢
Range
1¢-87¢
Family volume
$687
Identifier
KXTRUMPSLAUGHTERVOTE-26-3
Jun 25, 2026, 11:48 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$6K
Family rank
#3 of 7
7 outcomes · Will exactly
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$687
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If exactly 3 justices vote in favor of the petitioner in Trump v. Slaughter, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPSLAUGHTERVOTE-26-3
Event family
Will exactly.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$687
Outcomes
7
Highest price
6 87¢
Current share
0%
6
kalshi · KXTRUMPSLAUGHTERVOTE-26-6
5
kalshi · KXTRUMPSLAUGHTERVOTE-26-5
3
kalshi · KXTRUMPSLAUGHTERVOTE-26-3
0
kalshi · KXTRUMPSLAUGHTERVOTE-26-0
2
kalshi · KXTRUMPSLAUGHTERVOTE-26-2
4
kalshi · KXTRUMPSLAUGHTERVOTE-26-4
7
kalshi · KXTRUMPSLAUGHTERVOTE-26-7
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.