Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0 · Will Federal Funds Rate Decision
Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0 is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 6 inside Will Federal Funds Rate Decision.
Price history
2¢ current
Contract brief
If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0
Rank
#5 of 6
Leader
Rate: No change, Dissents: >0 39¢
Range
2¢-39¢
Family volume
$368
Identifier
KXFEDCOMBO-26SEPB-25C-0
Aug 1, 2026, 11:26 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$119
Family rank
#5 of 6
6 outcomes · Will Federal Funds Rate Decision
Closes
Sep 16, 2026
Family volume
$368
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If ALL of the following occur for Sep 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 16, 2026
Identifier
KXFEDCOMBO-26SEPB-25C-0
Event family
Will Federal Funds Rate Decision.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$368
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Rate: No change, Dissents: >0 39¢
Current share
32%
Rate: No change, Dissents: >0
kalshi · KXFEDCOMBO-26SEPB-0-T0
Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0
kalshi · KXFEDCOMBO-26SEPB-25H-T0
Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0
kalshi · KXFEDCOMBO-26SEPB-25H-0
Rate: No change, Dissents: 0
kalshi · KXFEDCOMBO-26SEPB-0-0
Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0
kalshi · KXFEDCOMBO-26SEPB-25C-T0
Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0
kalshi · KXFEDCOMBO-26SEPB-25C-0
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 2% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.