What is the current probability for "Will Felix launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 69¢ (69% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Felix launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 104.1% and 198.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Felix launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Felix launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 69% probability that Will Felix launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 69¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows minimal liquidity with just $588 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 69¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

████████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░

69¢

Bid/Ask 58/66¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $588·Closes Dec 31, 2026·254d remaining

KXTOKENLAUNCH-27JAN01-FELI

7-day price11 snapshots · 2 regime

64¢58¢ current

Apr 858¢Apr 20

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows minimal liquidity with just $588 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 69¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields—98% for Yes versus 203% for No—suggest the market may be mispriced, with the No side offering substantially better risk-adjusted returns despite the neutral regime score. The recent downward drift from 61¢ to 59¢ combined with the wide 9¢ spread indicates thin order books and low conviction among traders on this 259-day expiration.

Resolution rules

If Felix launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 104.1%

IY (No) 198.5%

Adj IY 99%

CRI 1

Overround 3.8%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	104.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	198.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	99%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:14:53 PM

Observability mediumEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTOKENLAUNCH-27JAN01-FELI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →