Fernando Mendoza · KXESPYS-26BBA
Fernando Mendoza is priced at 30¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 26¢ bid, 30¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside KXESPYS-26BBA.
Price history
30¢ current
+17¢Contract brief
If Fernando Mendoza wins Best Breakthrough Athlete at the the 2026 ESPYS, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Fernando Mendoza
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
Alysa Liu 65¢
Range
1¢-65¢
Family volume
$186
Identifier
KXESPYS-26BBA-FER
Jul 11, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
26¢
Ask
30¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$3
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · KXESPYS-26BBA
Closes
Jul 16, 2027
Family volume
$186
Orderbook snapshot
26 / 30¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Fernando Mendoza wins Best Breakthrough Athlete at the the 2026 ESPYS, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 16, 2027
Identifier
KXESPYS-26BBA-FER
Event family
KXESPYS-26BBA.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$186
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Alysa Liu 65¢
Current share
2%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.