Flávio Bolsonaro · KXBRPRES-26
Flávio Bolsonaro is priced at 35¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 35¢ bid, 36¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside KXBRPRES-26.
Price history
35¢ current
+12¢Contract brief
If Flávio Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Flávio Bolsonaro
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 61¢
Range
1¢-61¢
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
KXBRPRES-26-FBOL
Aug 24, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
35¢
Ask
36¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$613
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · KXBRPRES-26
Closes
Oct 25, 2027
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
35 / 36¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Flávio Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 25, 2027
Identifier
KXBRPRES-26-FBOL
Event family
KXBRPRES-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 61¢
Current share
6%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.