Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing October 25, 2027. Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential prospects are priced at a modest 43% on Kalshi with over 18 months until the October 2027 resolution, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about his viability as a candidate.
Analysis
Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential prospects are priced at a modest 43% on Kalshi with over 18 months until the October 2027 resolution, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about his viability as a candidate. The 90.6% implied yield on Yes contracts indicates substantial expected returns if he wins, though this is tempered by the risk-adjusted yield of 45% and relatively thin liquidity at $117.8K open interest with just $3.3K in daily volume. The flat price action (41¢ to 42¢ over seven days) and neutral regime score suggest the market is currently in equilibrium without strong directional conviction.
Resolution rules
If Flávio Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBRPRES-26-FBOL yes 100