Francesca Hong receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary
At least 35% is priced at 98¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 96¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 8 inside Will Francesca Hong receive at least.
Price history
98¢ current
+29¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary is 35% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 35%
Rank
#3 of 8
Leader
At least 20% 99¢
Range
20¢-99¢
Family volume
$947
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVWINOMD26FHONFHON-67
Aug 7, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
96¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$8K
Family rank
#3 of 8
8 outcomes · Will Francesca Hong receive at least
Closes
Aug 11, 2027
Family volume
$947
Orderbook snapshot
96 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Francesca Hong in the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary is 35% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 11, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVWINOMD26FHONFHON-67
Event family
Will Francesca Hong receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$947
Outcomes
8
Highest price
At least 20% 99¢
Current share
0%
At least 20%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVWINOMD26FHONFHON-60
At least 30%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVWINOMD26FHONFHON-65
At least 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVWINOMD26FHONFHON-67
At least 25%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVWINOMD26FHONFHON-62
At least 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVWINOMD26FHONFHON-70
At least 45%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVWINOMD26FHONFHON-72
At least 50%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVWINOMD26FHONFHON-75
At least 55%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVWINOMD26FHONFHON-77
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 98% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.