Will Geico advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Geico · KXWCADS-26JUL19
Will Geico advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Geico is priced at 50¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 49¢ bid, 51¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside KXWCADS-26JUL19.
Price history
50¢ current
Contract brief
If Geico aired at least one qualifying advertisement during the official broadcast of 2026 World Cup Final, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Geico advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Geico
Rank
#4 of 16
Leader
Will DoorDash advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: DoorDash 81¢
Range
1¢-81¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXWCADS-26JUL19-GEIC
Jun 24, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
49¢
Ask
51¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#4 of 16
16 outcomes · KXWCADS-26JUL19
Closes
Jul 19, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
49 / 51¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Geico aired at least one qualifying advertisement during the official broadcast of 2026 World Cup Final, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 19, 2027
Identifier
KXWCADS-26JUL19-GEIC
Event family
KXWCADS-26JUL19.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Will DoorDash advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: DoorDash 81¢
Current share
0%
Will DoorDash advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: DoorDash
kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-DOOR
Will Gatorade advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Gatorade
kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-GATO
Will Nike advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Nike
kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-NIKE
Will Geico advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Geico
kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-GEIC
Will Amazon advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Amazon
kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-AMAZ
Will Apple advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Apple
kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-APPL
Will Disney advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Disney
kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-DISN
Will Ford advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Ford
kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-FORD
Will Jeep advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Jeep
kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-JEEP
Will Lego advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Lego
kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-LEGO
Will Modelo advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Modelo
kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-MODE
Will Netflix advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Netflix
kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-NETF
Will Anthropic / Claude advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Anthropic / Claude
kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-ANTH
Will Coinbase advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Coinbase
kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-COIN
Will Gemini advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: Gemini
kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-GEMI
Will OpenAI / ChatGPT advertise during the 2026 World Cup Final: OpenAI / ChatGPT
kalshi · KXWCADS-26JUL19-OPEN
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 50% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.