Before Aug 31, 2026 · Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug
Before Aug 31, 2026 is priced at 86¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 86¢ bid, 87¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug.
Price history
86¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If Google releases A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater before Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Aug 31, 2026
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
Before Aug 31, 2026 86¢
Range
13¢-86¢
Family volume
$22K
Identifier
KXGEMINI-GEMI35P-26AUG31
Aug 2, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
86¢
Ask
87¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug
Closes
Aug 31, 2026
Family volume
$22K
Orderbook snapshot
86 / 87¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Google releases A model called Gemini 3.5 Pro or greater before Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 31, 2026
Identifier
KXGEMINI-GEMI35P-26AUG31
Event family
Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$22K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Aug 31, 2026 86¢
Current share
5%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 86% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.