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Government of the UK report that Rachel Reeves is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham

Rachel Reeves is priced at 64¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 64¢ bid, 65¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside Will Government of the UK report that.

Price history

64¢ current

+62¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
Jul 9, 2026Jul 9, 2026

Contract brief

If Rachel Reeves is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Rachel Reeves

Rank

#4 of 16

Leader

Angela Rayner 91¢

Range

3¢-91¢

Family volume

$326

Identifier

KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-RREE

Jul 11, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 38m ago

Implied probability

64¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 11, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 38m ago

Bid

64¢

Ask

65¢

Spread

Reported volume

$13

Family rank

#4 of 16

16 outcomes · Will Government of the UK report that

Closes

Aug 1, 2026

Family volume

$326

Orderbook snapshot

64 / 65¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
64¢742
59¢200
28¢53
27¢1.2K
25¢150
AskSize
65¢935
69¢200
93¢252
94¢1.8K
99¢1.1K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Rachel Reeves is officially listed or confirmed as serving as a full Cabinet minister under Andy Burnham before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 1, 2026

Identifier

KXBURNHAMJUL-26AUG01-RREE

SF Signal
SF Index
1586.37
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1003.9%

IY (No)

3172.7%

Adj IY

1586%

CRI

2

Overround

13.5%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1003.9%
3172.7%
Adj IY
1586%
2
Overround
13.5%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.