Grüne receive at least 20% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election
At least 20% is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 73¢ ask, 73¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 5 inside Will Grüne receive at least.
Price history
2¢ current
Contract brief
If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by Grüne in the 2026 Berlin state election is 20% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 20%
Rank
#4 of 5
Leader
At least 12% 82¢
Range
1¢-82¢
Family volume
$26
Identifier
KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20GRUN-20
Sep 21, 2026, 7:15 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
73¢
Spread
73¢
24h volume
$5
Family rank
#4 of 5
5 outcomes · Will Grüne receive at least
Closes
Sep 20, 2027
Family volume
$26
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 73¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by Grüne in the 2026 Berlin state election is 20% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 20, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20GRUN-20
Event family
Will Grüne receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$26
Outcomes
5
Highest price
At least 12% 82¢
Current share
0%
At least 12%
kalshi · KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20GRUN-12
At least 14%
kalshi · KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20GRUN-14
At least 16%
kalshi · KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20GRUN-16
At least 20%
kalshi · KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20GRUN-20
At least 18%
kalshi · KXVOTEBERLIN-26SEP20GRUN-18
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.