Highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys above $1000000 in 2026
Above $1M is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 11 inside Will highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys be above $.
Price history
7¢ current
Contract brief
If highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys is above $1000000 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above $1M
Rank
#11 of 11
Leader
Above $150K 92¢
Range
8¢-92¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXHERMESBIRKIN-27-BIR-1000000
Sep 16, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$205
Family rank
#11 of 11
11 outcomes · Will highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys be above $
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys is above $1000000 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXHERMESBIRKIN-27-BIR-1000000
Event family
Will highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys be above $.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Above $150K 92¢
Current share
—
Above $150K
kalshi · KXHERMESBIRKIN-27-BIR-150000
Above $200K
kalshi · KXHERMESBIRKIN-27-BIR-200000
Above $250K
kalshi · KXHERMESBIRKIN-27-BIR-250000
Above $300K
kalshi · KXHERMESBIRKIN-27-BIR-300000
Above $400K
kalshi · KXHERMESBIRKIN-27-BIR-400000
Above $500K
kalshi · KXHERMESBIRKIN-27-BIR-500000
Above $600K
kalshi · KXHERMESBIRKIN-27-BIR-600000
Above $700K
kalshi · KXHERMESBIRKIN-27-BIR-700000
Above $800K
kalshi · KXHERMESBIRKIN-27-BIR-800000
Above $900K
kalshi · KXHERMESBIRKIN-27-BIR-900000
Above $1M
kalshi · KXHERMESBIRKIN-27-BIR-1000000
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 7% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.