Before 2050 · KXCOLONIZEMARS-50
Before 2050 is priced at 17¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 18¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
17¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If humans have a self-sufficient colony of at least 10 people reside on Mars for at least one Earth year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before 2050
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXCOLONIZEMARS-50
Jun 26, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
18¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$23K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2050
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
18 / 22¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If humans have a self-sufficient colony of at least 10 people reside on Mars for at least one Earth year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2050
Identifier
KXCOLONIZEMARS-50
Event family
KXCOLONIZEMARS-50.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Before 2050 18¢
Current share
—
Before 2050
kalshi · KXCOLONIZEMARS-50
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
scientific
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 17% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.