Will I’m The Problem be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will I’m The Problem be the #2 most streamed Album on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the d.... This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with a 2686% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 5¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of "I'm The Problem" reaching #2 on 2026 Spotify Wrapped—a notable gap given the album's apparent commercial trajectory and the specificity of the #2 ranking requirement.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with a 2686% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 5¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of "I'm The Problem" reaching #2 on 2026 Spotify Wrapped—a notable gap given the album's apparent commercial trajectory and the specificity of the #2 ranking requirement. The minimal 24-hour volume of $0 and modest $346 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the wide 4¢ spread unreliable for assessing true market consensus and raising questions about whether this price reflects genuine market belief or simply a lack of trading activity. With 258 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 19, the market has adequate time for price discovery, but the neutral regime and zero recent volume suggest this contract may be overlooked or considered too speculative by most traders.
Resolution rules
If I’m The Problem is the #2 most streamed Album on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Albums Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPALBUMSPOTIFYRUNNERUP-26-ITP yes 100