Iran’s average daily crude oil production for August 2026 at least 2.6M bpd
At least 2.6M bpd is priced at 37¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 30¢ bid, 37¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 8 inside Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for August 2026 be at least.
Price history
37¢ current
+22¢Contract brief
If Iran’s average daily crude oil production for August 2026 is at least 2.6M bpd (million barrels per day), as reported in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after the reference month, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 2.6M bpd
Rank
#6 of 8
Leader
At least 1.6M bpd 93¢
Range
2¢-93¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXIRANCRUDE-26SEP10-T2.6
Aug 28, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 1m ago
Implied probability
Bid
30¢
Ask
37¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$14
Family rank
#6 of 8
8 outcomes · Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for August 2026 be at least
Closes
Sep 10, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
30 / 37¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Iran’s average daily crude oil production for August 2026 is at least 2.6M bpd (million barrels per day), as reported in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after the reference month, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 10, 2026
Identifier
KXIRANCRUDE-26SEP10-T2.6
Event family
Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for August 2026 be at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
8
Highest price
At least 1.6M bpd 93¢
Current share
—
At least 1.6M bpd
kalshi · KXIRANCRUDE-26SEP10-T1.6
At least 1.8M bpd
kalshi · KXIRANCRUDE-26SEP10-T1.8
At least 2.0M bpd
kalshi · KXIRANCRUDE-26SEP10-T2.0
At least 2.2M bpd
kalshi · KXIRANCRUDE-26SEP10-T2.2
At least 2.4M bpd
kalshi · KXIRANCRUDE-26SEP10-T2.4
At least 2.6M bpd
kalshi · KXIRANCRUDE-26SEP10-T2.6
At least 2.8M bpd
kalshi · KXIRANCRUDE-26SEP10-T2.8
At least 3.0M bpd
kalshi · KXIRANCRUDE-26SEP10-T3.0
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.