Will Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?
KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01-LEB · closes Jan 1, 2027 · 261 days remaining
Price
Last
22¢
Bid
17¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
4¢
24h Volume
$1,099.59
Open Interest
$14,439.96
Cross-venue · polymarket
Same outcome trades on Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? · match confidence 0.83 · close-time delta 39h
Counterpart price
21¢
This price
22¢
Spread (this − cp)
1¢
Counterpart IY
528.8%
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 682.1% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 28.6% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 5 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.7% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 520% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 2.02 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.4/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 682% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
72 indicator snapshots · 2 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.409
Label
neutral
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/15/2026, 8:36:22 AM
About this market
If Israel and Lebanon normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01-LEB yes 100