Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Jasmine Crockett personally participates in at least one campaign activity, such as a rally, fundraiser, campaign advertisement, canvassing event, or phone-banking effort, in which she specifically and expressly advocates for James Talarico’s election in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election before Nov 3, 2026
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Jasmine Crockett personally participates in at least one campaign activity, such as a rally, fundraiser, campaign advertisement, canvassing event, or phone-banking effort, in which she specifically and expressly advocates for James Talarico’s election in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election before Nov 3, 2026 is priced at 45¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 44¢ bid, 45¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
45¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If Jasmine Crockett personally participates in at least one campaign activity, such as a rally, fundraiser, campaign advertisement, canvassing event, or phone-banking effort, in which she specifically and expressly advocates for James Talarico’s election in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Jasmine Crockett personally participates in at least one campaign activity, such as a rally, fundraiser, campaign advertisement, canvassing event, or phone-banking effort, in which she specifically and expressly advocates for James Talarico’s election in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election before Nov 3, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$68
Identifier
KXCROCKETTCAMPAIGN-26-26NOV03
Jun 23, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
44¢
Ask
45¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$68
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Family volume
$68
Orderbook snapshot
44 / 45¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Jasmine Crockett personally participates in at least one campaign activity, such as a rally, fundraiser, campaign advertisement, canvassing event, or phone-banking effort, in which she specifically and expressly advocates for James Talarico’s election in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
KXCROCKETTCAMPAIGN-26-26NOV03
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$68
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Jasmine Crockett personally participates in at least one campaign activity, such as a rally, fundraiser, campaign advertisement, canvassing event, or phone-banking effort, in which she specifically and expressly advocates for James Talarico’s election in the November 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election before Nov 3, 2026 45¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 45% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.