Before August 2026 · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of crude oil that has gone into effect before
Before August 2026 is priced at 88¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of crude oil that has gone into effect before.
Price history
88¢ current
+87¢Contract brief
If the United States has imposed a ban on exports of crude oil that has gone into effect after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before August 2026
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Before 2027 6¢
Range
3¢-6¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXCRUDEEXPORTBAN-26-AUG26
Jun 25, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$6K
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of crude oil that has gone into effect before
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States has imposed a ban on exports of crude oil that has gone into effect after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXCRUDEEXPORTBAN-26-AUG26
Event family
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of crude oil that has gone into effect before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before 2027 6¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 88% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.