Before Aug 31, 2026 · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is disabled for US customers before
Before Aug 31, 2026 is priced at 8¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is disabled for US customers before.
Price history
8¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If general access to Fable 5 is disabled for US customers after Issuance and before Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Aug 31, 2026
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Before Aug 31, 2026 3¢
Range
1¢-3¢
Family volume
$387
Identifier
KXFABLEDISABLED-27-26AUG31
Jul 16, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
8¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$387
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is disabled for US customers before
Closes
Aug 31, 2026
Family volume
$387
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 8¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If general access to Fable 5 is disabled for US customers after Issuance and before Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 31, 2026
Identifier
KXFABLEDISABLED-27-26AUG31
Event family
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that general access to Fable 5 is disabled for US customers before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$387
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before Aug 31, 2026 3¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
financial
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 8% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.