It be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a publicly scheduled commercial passenger flight carrying revenue passengers completes a nonstop trip between an airport in the United States and an airport in Lebanon before Apr 1, 2027
Before Apr 1, 2027 is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 11¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a publicly scheduled commercial passenger flight carrying revenue passengers completes a nonstop trip between an airport in the United States and an airport in Lebanon before.
Price history
12¢ current
−11¢Contract brief
If a publicly scheduled commercial passenger flight carrying revenue passengers completes a nonstop trip between an airport in the United States and an airport in Lebanon after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Apr 1, 2027
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Before Apr 1, 2027 11¢
Range
8¢-11¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXLEBUSFLIGHT-27-27APR01
Sep 3, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
11¢
Reported volume
$4K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a publicly scheduled commercial passenger flight carrying revenue passengers completes a nonstop trip between an airport in the United States and an airport in Lebanon before
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 22¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a publicly scheduled commercial passenger flight carrying revenue passengers completes a nonstop trip between an airport in the United States and an airport in Lebanon after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
Identifier
KXLEBUSFLIGHT-27-27APR01
Event family
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a publicly scheduled commercial passenger flight carrying revenue passengers completes a nonstop trip between an airport in the United States and an airport in Lebanon before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before Apr 1, 2027 11¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 12% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.