Platner drops out with no replacement · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic
Platner drops out with no replacement is priced at 1¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 5 inside Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic.
Price history
1¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If Graham Platner drops out, but the Maine Democratic Party does not select a replacement after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Platner drops out with no replacement
Rank
#4 of 5
Leader
Special convention 99¢
Range
1¢-99¢
Family volume
$563
Identifier
KXPLATNERREPLACE-26-NORE
Jul 26, 2026, 2:10 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$94
Family rank
#4 of 5
5 outcomes · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$563
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Graham Platner drops out, but the Maine Democratic Party does not select a replacement after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXPLATNERREPLACE-26-NORE
Event family
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Maine Democratic.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$563
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Special convention 99¢
Current share
17%
Special convention
kalshi · KXPLATNERREPLACE-26-CONV
State committee
kalshi · KXPLATNERREPLACE-26-COMM
Statewide caucuses
kalshi · KXPLATNERREPLACE-26-CAUC
Another process
kalshi · KXPLATNERREPLACE-26-OTHE
Platner drops out with no replacement
kalshi · KXPLATNERREPLACE-26-NORE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.