It be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a UK ban on social media platforms offering accounts to users under age 16 is in effect before Apr 1, 2027
Before Apr 1, 2027 is priced at 56¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 54¢ bid, 56¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 3 inside Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a UK ban on social media platforms offering accounts to users under age 16 is in effect before.
Price history
56¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If a UK ban on social media platforms offering accounts to users under age 16 is in effect after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Apr 1, 2027
Rank
#2 of 3
Leader
Before Aug 1, 2027 70¢
Range
10¢-70¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXUKSOCIALBAN-27-27APR01
Jun 25, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
54¢
Ask
56¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$2
Family rank
#2 of 3
3 outcomes · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a UK ban on social media platforms offering accounts to users under age 16 is in effect before
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
54 / 56¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a UK ban on social media platforms offering accounts to users under age 16 is in effect after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
Identifier
KXUKSOCIALBAN-27-27APR01
Event family
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a UK ban on social media platforms offering accounts to users under age 16 is in effect before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Before Aug 1, 2027 70¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 56% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.