It be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a new AI safety agreement between the governments of the United States and China has been formally announced after September 16, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET before Oct 1, 2026
Before Oct 1, 2026 is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 4 inside Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a new AI safety agreement between the governments of the United States and China has been formally announced after September 16, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET before.
Price history
11¢ current
Contract brief
If a new AI safety agreement between the U.S. and Chinese governments is formally announced after Issuance and reported by any of the Source Agencies before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Oct 1, 2026
Rank
#4 of 4
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 24¢
Range
5¢-24¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXUSCHINAAISAFETY-27-26OCT01
Sep 20, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#4 of 4
4 outcomes · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a new AI safety agreement between the governments of the United States and China has been formally announced after September 16, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET before
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 10¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a new AI safety agreement between the U.S. and Chinese governments is formally announced after Issuance and reported by any of the Source Agencies before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
Identifier
KXUSCHINAAISAFETY-27-26OCT01
Event family
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a new AI safety agreement between the governments of the United States and China has been formally announced after September 16, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 24¢
Current share
46%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.