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Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Yale University and the U.S. Department of Justice have entered into a final settlement or other final written agreement resolving, suspending, or settling a federal admissions-discrimination investigation that includes or applies to Yale Law School before Jan 1, 2027

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Yale University and the U.S. Department of Justice have entered into a final settlement or other final written agreement resolving, suspending, or settling a federal admissions-discrimination investigation that includes or applies to Yale Law School before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 36¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 34¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

36¢ current

12¢
30¢40¢50¢
Jul 9, 2026Jul 12, 2026

Contract brief

If Yale University and the U.S. Department of Justice have entered into a final settlement or other final written agreement resolving, suspending, or settling a federal admissions-discrimination investigation that includes or applies to Yale Law School after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Yale University and the U.S. Department of Justice have entered into a final settlement or other final written agreement resolving, suspending, or settling a federal admissions-discrimination investigation that includes or applies to Yale Law School before Jan 1, 2027

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$35

Identifier

KXYALEDOJSETTLE-27-27JAN01

Jul 12, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 1m ago

Implied probability

36¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 12, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 1m ago

Bid

34¢

Ask

41¢

Spread

24h volume

$5

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$35

Orderbook snapshot

34 / 41¢

Kalshi
7¢ spread
BidSize
34¢500
33¢200
10¢240
7¢1.3K
6¢92
AskSize
41¢500
67¢48
70¢73
71¢48
72¢227

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Yale University and the U.S. Department of Justice have entered into a final settlement or other final written agreement resolving, suspending, or settling a federal admissions-discrimination investigation that includes or applies to Yale Law School after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXYALEDOJSETTLE-27-27JAN01

SF Signal
SF Index
193.44
Regime
neutral

Event family

This market.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$35

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Yale University and the U.S. Department of Justice have entered into a final settlement or other final written agreement resolving, suspending, or settling a federal admissions-discrimination investigation that includes or applies to Yale Law School before Jan 1, 2027 36¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

411.1%
109.1%
Adj IY
193%
2
LAS
0.06

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.