SimpleFunctions

Jackson Flora · KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-5

Jackson Flora is priced at 34¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 29¢ bid, 39¢ ask, 10¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-5.

Price history

34¢ current

30¢35¢
Jun 25, 2026Jun 25, 2026

Contract brief

If Jackson Flora is selected as the 5th overall pick in the 2026 Pro Baseball Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Jackson Flora

Rank

#1 of 6

Leader

Jackson Flora 29¢

Range

2¢-29¢

Family volume

$9

Identifier

KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-5-JFLO

Jun 25, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC · 11m ago

Implied probability

34¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 25, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC · 11m ago

Bid

29¢

Ask

39¢

Spread

10¢

Reported volume

$79

Family rank

#1 of 6

6 outcomes · KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-5

Closes

Jul 21, 2026

Family volume

$9

Orderbook snapshot

29 / 39¢

Kalshi
10¢ spread
BidSize
29¢250
25¢6
20¢6
15¢6
10¢6
AskSize
39¢250
57¢131
60¢175
63¢189
66¢205

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Jackson Flora is selected as the 5th overall pick in the 2026 Pro Baseball Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 21, 2026

Identifier

KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-5-JFLO

SF Signal
SF Index
1710.67
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXMLBDRAFTPICK-26-5.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$9

Outcomes

6

Highest price

Jackson Flora 29¢

Current share

0%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

3421.3%

IY (No)

570.8%

Adj IY

1711%

CRI

2

Overround

-0.4%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

3421.3%
570.8%
Adj IY
1711%
2
Overround
-0.4%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.