Before Jan 1, 2027 · Will James McDonald be confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York before
Before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 45¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 34¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside Will James McDonald be confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York before.
Price history
45¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
If James McDonald is the first person confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 33¢
Range
1¢-33¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXMCDONALDCONF-26JUN17-JAN01
Jun 23, 2026, 12:38 PM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
34¢
Ask
41¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$182
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · Will James McDonald be confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York before
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
34 / 41¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If James McDonald is the first person confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXMCDONALDCONF-26JUN17-JAN01
Event family
Will James McDonald be confirmed as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 33¢
Current share
13%
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXMCDONALDCONF-26JUN17-JAN01
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXMCDONALDCONF-26JUN17-OCT01
Before Aug 8, 2026
kalshi · KXMCDONALDCONF-26JUN17-AUG08
Before Jul 25, 2026
kalshi · KXMCDONALDCONF-26JUN17-JUL25
Before Jul 18, 2026
kalshi · KXMCDONALDCONF-26JUN17-JUL18
Before Jun 27, 2026
kalshi · KXMCDONALDCONF-26JUN17-JUN27
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.