What is the current probability for "Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 82¢ (82% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 31.6% and 656.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 82% probability that Will Jannik Sinner win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?. This contract trades at 82¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in a strong 81% probability that Sinner wins a Grand Slam by end-2026, up 4 cents over the past week, reflecting his recent ascent in professional tennis.

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82¢

Bid/Ask 82/87¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $1,210.48·OI $10,713.54·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-JSIN

7-day price26 snapshots · 13 regime

83¢82¢ current

Apr 974¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing in a strong 81% probability that Sinner wins a Grand Slam by end-2026, up 4 cents over the past week, reflecting his recent ascent in professional tennis. However, the extremely asymmetric implied yields—602.7% for the No side versus 33.2% for Yes—signal that No contracts are severely underpriced relative to their risk, suggesting potential mispricing or that sophisticated traders are avoiding the unfavorable payout structure. With only $60 in 24-hour volume against $9,366 open interest and 258 days to expiry, liquidity is thin, making the tight 1¢ spread somewhat misleading about true execution costs.

Resolution rules

If Jannik Sinner wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 31.6%

IY (No) 656.4%

Adj IY 640%

CRI 5

RV 93%

VR 1.66

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	31.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	656.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	640%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	93%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.66	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:24:49 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-JSIN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →