Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?

6¢

Bid/Ask 5/6¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $176,370.41·Closes Nov 3, 2026·198d remaining

KXGOVFLNOMR-26-JCOL

7-day price16 snapshots · 13 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Collins is priced at a negligible 6¢ on Kalshi with virtually no 24-hour volume despite $176k open interest, suggesting this is a speculative long-shot bet rather than an actively traded position. The 3496% implied yield on a Yes resolution reflects the extreme underdog pricing, though the 1¢ spread to Polymarket (5¢) indicates some minor cross-venue inefficiency favoring the Kalshi ask. With nearly 200 days to the November 2026 close and a neutral regime score, this market appears to be pricing in Collins as a fringe candidate with minimal path to the Republican nomination.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 5¢(Δ +1¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 5743.0%Close-time delta 1863h

Resolution rules

If Jay Collins wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3495.8%

IY (No) 9.7%

Adj IY 1748%

CRI 19

Overround -0.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3495.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1748%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 6:18:34 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 5:53:19 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGOVFLNOMR-26-JCOL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →