Will Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. Tucker Carlson's Republican presidential nomination odds are priced at a minimal 5¢ with an extremely asymmetric 741% implied yield for Yes positions, suggesting the market has largely dismissed this outcome despite 936 days until resolution.
Analysis
Tucker Carlson's Republican presidential nomination odds are priced at a minimal 5¢ with an extremely asymmetric 741% implied yield for Yes positions, suggesting the market has largely dismissed this outcome despite 936 days until resolution. The $1.36M open interest and tight 0¢ spread indicate reasonable liquidity for a long-tail political event, though the 19 Cliff Risk Index flags meaningful tail risk as the 2028 nomination process approaches. The flat 7-day price action and neutral regime score suggest this is a stable, consensus-low probability rather than a declining position.
Resolution rules
If Tucker Carlson wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR yes 100