Jay Collins receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary
At least 5% is priced at 93¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 89¢ bid, 96¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside Will Jay Collins receive at least.
Price history
93¢ current
Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Jay Collins in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary is 5% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 5%
Rank
#1 of 7
Leader
At least 5% 89¢
Range
1¢-89¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JCOLJCOL-5
Aug 8, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 12m ago
Implied probability
Bid
89¢
Ask
96¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#1 of 7
7 outcomes · Will Jay Collins receive at least
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
89 / 96¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Jay Collins in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary is 5% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JCOLJCOL-5
Event family
Will Jay Collins receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
7
Highest price
At least 5% 89¢
Current share
—
At least 5%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JCOLJCOL-5
At least 10%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JCOLJCOL-10
At least 15%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JCOLJCOL-15
At least 20%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JCOLJCOL-20
At least 25%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JCOLJCOL-25
At least 30%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JCOLJCOL-30
At least 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JCOLJCOL-35
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 93% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.