Before Jan 1, 2027 · Will JD Vance announce a run for President of the United States before
Before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 9¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 4 inside Will JD Vance announce a run for President of the United States before.
Price history
12¢ current
Contract brief
If JD Vance has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2027
Rank
#4 of 4
Leader
Before Oct 1, 2027 73¢
Range
9¢-73¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXVANCERUN-28-27JAN01
Aug 10, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
15¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
#4 of 4
4 outcomes · Will JD Vance announce a run for President of the United States before
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 15¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If JD Vance has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXVANCERUN-28-27JAN01
Event family
Will JD Vance announce a run for President of the United States before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Oct 1, 2027 73¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
high
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.