Juan Ciscomani receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 AZ-06 House election
At least 50% is priced at 19¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 7 inside Will Juan Ciscomani receive at least.
Price history
19¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Juan Ciscomani in the 2026 AZ-06 House election is 50% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 50%
Rank
#6 of 7
Leader
At least 40% 92¢
Range
2¢-92¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXVOTEGENERAL-HOUSEAZ6-26JCIS-50
Oct 11, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 23h ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
20¢
Spread
9¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
#6 of 7
7 outcomes · Will Juan Ciscomani receive at least
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 20¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Juan Ciscomani in the 2026 AZ-06 House election is 50% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEGENERAL-HOUSEAZ6-26JCIS-50
Event family
Will Juan Ciscomani receive at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
7
Highest price
At least 40% 92¢
Current share
—
At least 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEGENERAL-HOUSEAZ6-26JCIS-40
At least 42%
kalshi · KXVOTEGENERAL-HOUSEAZ6-26JCIS-42
At least 44%
kalshi · KXVOTEGENERAL-HOUSEAZ6-26JCIS-44
At least 46%
kalshi · KXVOTEGENERAL-HOUSEAZ6-26JCIS-46
At least 48%
kalshi · KXVOTEGENERAL-HOUSEAZ6-26JCIS-48
At least 50%
kalshi · KXVOTEGENERAL-HOUSEAZ6-26JCIS-50
At least 52%
kalshi · KXVOTEGENERAL-HOUSEAZ6-26JCIS-52
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.