SimpleFunctions

Julia Stiles · KXDWTSRANK-226DEC31

Julia Stiles is priced at 8¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside KXDWTSRANK-226DEC31.

Price history

8¢ current

+5¢
0¢10¢
Sep 2, 2026Sep 18, 2026

Contract brief

If Julia Stiles finishes 2nd on Dancing with the Stars Season 35, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Julia Stiles

Rank

#5 of 16

Leader

Jenna Dewan 18¢

Range

1¢-18¢

Family volume

$726

Identifier

KXDWTSRANK-226DEC31-JSTIL

Sep 22, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 23m ago

Implied probability

8¢
Latest venue quote
Sep 22, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 23m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$52

Family rank

#5 of 16

16 outcomes · KXDWTSRANK-226DEC31

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Family volume

$726

Orderbook snapshot

7 / 8¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.0K
7¢3.5K
4¢100
3¢100
2¢469
AskSize
8¢2.3K
9¢855
10¢100
11¢100
12¢2

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Julia Stiles finishes 2nd on Dancing with the Stars Season 35, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

KXDWTSRANK-226DEC31-JSTIL

SF Signal
SF Index
2080.45
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

4854.6%

IY (No)

27.5%

Adj IY

2080%

CRI

13

Overround

-0.2%

LAS

0.14

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

4854.6%
27.5%
Adj IY
2080%
13
Overround
-0.2%
LAS
0.14

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.