What is the current probability for "Will Kansas City win the MLS Western Conference?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 22¢ (22% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 8, 2027. 261 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Kansas City win the MLS Western Conference?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 496.0% and 39.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Kansas City win the MLS Western Conference?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Kansas City win the MLS Western Conference?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Kansas City win the MLS Western Conference?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing January 8, 2027. Kansas City's 22¢ price reflects modest championship odds, though the 491.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests meaningful upside potential if they perform strongly through the 2026 season.

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22¢

Bid/Ask 0/10¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $680·Closes Jan 8, 2027·261d remaining

KXMLSWEST-26-SKC

Analysis

2d ago

Kansas City's 22¢ price reflects modest championship odds, though the 491.5% implied yield on the Yes side suggests meaningful upside potential if they perform strongly through the 2026 season. The market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $680 open interest, combined with a wide 10¢ spread, indicating this is a low-conviction market with limited trading activity. With 263 days to expiry, there's substantial time for the team's actual performance to move the needle, though the neutral regime score and moderate cliff risk suggest the current pricing isn't under immediate pressure from external events.

Resolution rules

If Kansas City is the 2026 Major League Soccer (MLS) Western Conference champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 496.0%

IY (No) 39.5%

Adj IY 135%

CRI 4

Overround 0.3%

LAS 0.45

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	496.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	39.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	135%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.45	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 5:07:11 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 4:53:24 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLSWEST-26-SKC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →