Karolina Muchova · KXWTA-26BAD
Karolina Muchova is priced at 46¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 27¢ bid, 46¢ ask, 19¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 3 inside KXWTA-26BAD.
Price history
46¢ current
+36¢Contract brief
If Karolina Muchova wins the 2026 WTA Bad Homburg professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Karolina Muchova
Rank
#2 of 3
Leader
Naomi Osaka 28¢
Range
27¢-28¢
Family volume
$5K
Identifier
KXWTA-26BAD-MUC
Jun 25, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
27¢
Ask
46¢
Spread
19¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#2 of 3
3 outcomes · KXWTA-26BAD
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$5K
Orderbook snapshot
27 / 46¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Karolina Muchova wins the 2026 WTA Bad Homburg professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXWTA-26BAD-MUC
Event family
KXWTA-26BAD.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Naomi Osaka 28¢
Current share
16%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 46% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.