Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026?

75¢

Bid/Ask 41/99¢·Spread 58¢·Vol $372.12·OI $1,910.33·Closes Aug 1, 2026·105d remaining

KXKASHANNOUNCEOUT-26APR-AUG01

7-day price276 snapshots · 3 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The market has experienced dramatic volatility, with the Yes price collapsing 39% over seven days (from 57¢ to 41¢), now sitting at 75¢—suggesting recent price recovery that warrants scrutiny. The 58¢ spread is exceptionally wide relative to the $1,910 open interest, indicating severe illiquidity and potential for significant slippage on larger trades. The 1513% realized volatility and 7.32 vol ratio are extreme outliers, combined with an unusually high info arrival rate of 1.3 events per hour, suggesting this market is highly sensitive to news flow and may be pricing in recent developments about Patel's tenure.

Resolution rules

If Kash Patel leaves (or announces he will leave) as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 499.9%

IY (No) 241.4%

Adj IY 500%

CRI 1

RV 1513%

VR 7.32

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	499.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	241.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	500%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1513%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	7.32	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

58¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 2:18:05 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/18/2026, 2:08:50 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXKASHANNOUNCEOUT-26APR-AUG01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →