Before Aug 1, 2026 · Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before
Before Aug 1, 2026 is priced at 22¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 23¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before.
Price history
22¢ current
−18¢Contract brief
If Kash Patel leaves (or announces he will leave) as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Aug 1, 2026
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Before Aug 1, 2026 22¢
Range
8¢-22¢
Family volume
$196
Identifier
KXKASHANNOUNCEOUT-26APR-AUG01
Jun 8, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
23¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$18
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$196
Orderbook snapshot
23 / 28¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Kash Patel leaves (or announces he will leave) as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXKASHANNOUNCEOUT-26APR-AUG01
Event family
Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$196
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before Aug 1, 2026 22¢
Current share
9%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.