What is the current probability for "Will Kevin Warsh say Central Bank at his Jul 2026 press conference?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 82¢ (82% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 30, 2026. 7 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Kevin Warsh say Central Bank at his Jul 2026 press conference?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1199.1% and 21793.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Kevin Warsh say Central Bank at his Jul 2026 press conference?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — computed indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Central Bank · Will Kevin Warsh say

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Central Bank is priced at 82¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 81¢ bid, 82¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Will Kevin Warsh say.

Open on Kalshi View JSON Enter terminal

Price history

82¢ current

+79¢

0¢25¢50¢75¢

Jul 7, 2026Jul 20, 2026

Contract brief

If the Chair of the Federal Reserve says Central Bank at his Jul 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Central Bank

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

Central Bank 81¢

Range

3¢-81¢

Family volume

$8K

Identifier

KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-CENT

Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Implied probability

82¢

Latest venue quote

Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Bid

81¢

Ask

82¢

Spread

1¢

24h volume

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · Will Kevin Warsh say

Closes

Jul 30, 2026

Family volume

$8K

Orderbook snapshot

81 / 82¢

Kalshi

1¢ spread

BidSize

81¢814

78¢100

73¢500

71¢5

68¢200

AskSize

82¢1.3K

83¢100

85¢50

91¢100

92¢5

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the Chair of the Federal Reserve says Central Bank at his Jul 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 30, 2026

Identifier

KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-CENT

SF Signal

SF Index

10896.73

Regime

neutral

Event family

Will Kevin Warsh say.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$8K

Outcomes

Highest price

Central Bank 81¢

Current share

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Central Bank

kalshi · KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-CENT

81¢

$2$2—

Productivity

kalshi · KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-PROD

76¢

$137$137—

Good Day

kalshi · KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-GOODD

72¢

$1K$1K0.0

Uncertainty

kalshi · KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-UNCE

66¢

$221$2210.0

Restrictive

kalshi · KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-REST

61¢

$125$125—

Shock

kalshi · KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-SHOC

53¢

$770$770—

President

kalshi · KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-PRES

43¢

$107$107—

Dollar

kalshi · KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-DOLL

30¢

$138$108—

Pandemic

kalshi · KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-PAND

21¢

$580$580—

Iran

kalshi · KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-IRAN

17¢

$135$135—

Good Afternoon

kalshi · KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-GOOD

15¢

$2K$2K0.1

Volatility

kalshi · KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-VOLA

14¢

$102$102—

Egg

kalshi · KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-EGG

11¢

$255$255—

QE / Quantitative Easing

kalshi · KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-QE

11¢

$184$184—

Trump

kalshi · KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-TRUM

9¢

$773$773—

Event does not qualify

kalshi · KXFEDMENTION-26JUL-NQE

3¢

$1K$1K0.3

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1199.1%

IY (No)

21793.5%

Adj IY

10897%

CRI

Overround

11.4%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

IY (Yes)

1199.1%

Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side

IY (No)

21793.5%

Annualized return, NO side

Adj IY

10897%

Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction

CRI

Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution

Overround

11.4%

Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

Prediction Market Index

Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.

Market Screener

Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.

Event Probability API

Read 82% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.

Realtime Data API

Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.

World State API

Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.

Hedging Workflows

Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.